How Stupid Is That?
The “Dumb” Ideas That Have Reshaped Society and Made People Rich
Some of the most important innovations of the last century were initially dismissed as crazy, trivial, or useless. Yet, these “dumb ideas” have profoundly reshaped our world — and made some investors very rich. History shows us that natural human resistance to change and a preference for the familiar often lead to skepticism toward innovations. However, time and again, many of those inventions that initially seemed silly or pointless have become game changers. Let’s explore just a few of the supposedly “dead-on-arrival” innovations.
Every revolutionary idea seems to evoke three stages of reaction. They may be summed up by the phrases:
(1) It’s completely impossible.
(2) It’s possible, but it’s not worth doing.
(3) I said it was a good idea all along.
― Arthur C. Clarke
The Light Bulb
Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure.
When Thomas Edison introduced his incandescent light bulb on New Year’s Eve, 1879, many scientific minds of the time were unimpressed. A British Parliamentary Committee assigned to investigate the value of Edison’s bulb deemed it “unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.” Another critic declared, “His idea is utterly impractical.” The most stinging rebuke came from one of the era’s most esteemed scientists, who said, “Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure.”
Trains
What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?
The advent of trains was met with great suspicion, ridicule, and anxiety. “What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?” asked The Quarterly Review, a British periodical, in March 1825. There were widespread fears about trains’ potential health effects. One scientific writer even warned: “Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”
Planes
Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible.
“Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible,” declared Lord Kelvin, a prominent British physicist and aviation skeptic — just two years before the Wright brothers’ first flight. Even after flight was achieved, leaders and the broader public were slow to recognize its potential. “Airplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value,” declared Ferdinand Foch, Supreme Commander of the Allied Armies, in 1911. The next year, aircraft were being used to take reconnaissance photographs of enemy positions.
Automobiles
It will never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle
Early automobiles faced a legion of naysayers, convinced that cars were either too dangerous or merely a passing fad. “The ordinary ‘horseless carriage’ is a luxury for the wealthy, and although its price will probably fall in the future, it will never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle,” asserted a reporter for The Literary Digest in 1899. “Get a horse!” was commonly shouted at early motorists, encapsulating the public’s skepticism of self-propelling machines.
Home Computer
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
The idea of a computer in every home seemed laughable to many at first. Even industry experts were skeptical of their potential. Ken Olsen, who founded the Digital Equipment Corporation, said in 1977, “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Similarly, in the early 1970s, the chairman of IBM was quoted as saying, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” According to the 2023 U.S. Census Bureau survey, 94% of American households own personal computers.
The Internet
It will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.
When the internet began to take shape, there was widespread doubt about its usefulness and potential. In 1988, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman state: “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” A 1995 Newsweek article by astronomer Clifford Stoll article also predicted the Internet would quickly die. “Hardware and software will all top out in the mid-90s and, thus, the Internet will never ever get any more user friendly or portable.” Stoll had his moment in history as the article has since been held as a classic example of misjudging the potential of emerging technologies.
Smartphones
There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.
Smartphones were once seen as extravagant gadgets, combining phones and computers. Critics doubted their necessity, with then-CEO of Microsoft, Steve Ballmer, famously stating in 2007, “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” Innovation expert Clayton Christensen also predicted limited success. “It’s not [truly] disruptive. History speaks pretty loudly on that, that the probability of success is going to be limited.” Christensen later admitted his mistake, using it to refine his theory of disruptive innovation, which has greatly influenced business strategy.
Emerging Technologies
Artificial Intelligence is more of a “dream” than a reality.
Lest we be tempted to think we’re all much wiser now, we should recognize that many promising technologies now face the same doubts and fears as past game changers. In the early stages of Artificial Intelligence development, even Bill Gates expressed early skepticism, calling it more of a “dream” than a reality. However, he later became a strong advocate for AI research and development as the technology gained momentum.
Driverless Cars
66% of U.S. drivers express fear, up from 55% in 2022.
Driverless cars are in an even earlier stage of public acceptance. Recent AAA surveys reveal that 66% of U.S. drivers express fear, up from 55% in 2022. At the same time, tech watchers predict a growing acceptance of driverless technology as people experience fully autonomous ride-hailing services such as Waymo One.
The list goes on, with new advances in quantum computing, genetic engineering, augmented reality, and fusion power deemed impractical or destined to fail. But if history is any guide, it’s not a question of if many of these emerging technologies will reshape our world but when.
Of course, there are ample examples of technologies that have failed to work or have failed to find product-market fit. The point is that even if you’re not ready yet to embrace a promising advancement, at least consider approaching it with curiosity instead of fear and skepticism.
And as some of the savviest investors have done, you might even check out and invest in some of these early technologies. The advice that investor Warren Buffet gave about when to invest just might apply.
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.
— Warren Buffet
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