Evaluating Web3 Startups

7 Key Factors Every Investor Must Know

Written by

Sophia Zhao

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14 min

Post the noise of memetokens and the drama of crypto company meltdowns making headlines, the hype bubble has finally popped. This has left a space where “irrational exuberance” has given way to a return of sense and sensibility. As the dust settles, the focus shifts from wild speculation to startups that are actually building sustainable innovations in Web3 — those with real value and not just flashy promises. Respected firms like McKinsey, BlackRock, and even Disney are recognizing the potential of this space, with reports and initiatives that underscore the transformative potential of blockchain technology. Now is the time to look beyond the headlines and see the opportunity in this evolving landscape, where the true builders are laying the foundations for the next era of the digital economy.

As venture capitalists in the rapidly evolving Web3 space, we’re often asked how we evaluate startups in this sector.

Investing in Web3 startups requires a nuanced approach, combining traditional investment principles with a deep understanding of blockchain technology, decentralized ecosystems, and emerging use cases. Our goal is to identify startups that not only have innovative technology but also a solid business model, strong team, and the potential for long-term scalability.

In this blog, we’ll outline the seven key categories we consider when evaluating Web3 startups and why they are critical for portfolio success.

OUR FOCUS

It can be a bit of a long read; I recommend you make a cuppa.

1. Team and Founders

Traditional Criteria

From a traditional perspective, we look closely at the founder’s background, including their experience, entrepreneurial successes, and deep industry expertise. For instance, a founder with a proven track record of building and scaling companies in related sectors or roles often demonstrates the ability to navigate the challenges of a startup. Sometimes we come across serial entrepreneurs that have had successful exits in the past through an M&A or IPO, and this track record gives us more confidence in the founder’s ability to replicate the success in the new venture.

We also examine the team’s composition and chemistry, to see if they have complementary skill sets, such as strong leadership, product development, and business strategy. And of course we consider how well they work together.


Web3-Specific Criteria

Layering on the Web3 perspective, we look to the founders’ technical expertise in blockchain, understanding of the industry and its current state, and the ability to “connect the nodes” or build a community. This includes their hands-on experience with decentralized technologies, smart contracts, and cryptographic principles, which are essential for developing robust blockchain solutions. An example might be a founding team that has contributed to major blockchain protocols or built successful decentralized applications (dApps), showcasing their technical capabilities.

We appreciate founders that have the market understanding, product knowledge. and connections that allow them to either be an early trailblazer innovating a new use case or building something complementary and interoperable with the current system. Their ability to build and engage a decentralized community is critical — especially in tokenized ecosystems. Founders who have successfully fostered active, supportive communities around a token or decentralized platform demonstrate that they can drive network effects and long-term user engagement, which are key to Web3 project sustainability.

Furthermore, if the founder is developing hybrid Web2 and Web3 solutions — leveraging Web3 capabilities to address traditional industry challenges — it’s crucial to evaluate the opportunity through both a Web3 and traditional industry lens. This approach requires assessing the founder’s depth of experience and understanding of the conventional market they aim to disrupt, as well as their capability to effectively integrate Web3 technologies to deliver a competitive advantage.

2. Market and Product-Market Fit

Traditional Criteria

In general, we examine the size, growth potential, and accessibility of the market to ensure there’s sufficient demand for the product or service that the startup is offering. We also consider the startup’s timing — whether market conditions, technological advancements, or regulatory shifts create an optimal window for entry. Being too early or late can hinder adoption.

We seek products or services that effectively solve a significant customer pain point, with customers showing a clear willingness to pay. It’s essential for us to see broad adoption across diverse customer segments and regions, rather than being confined to a narrow niche. We also prioritize companies that demonstrate consistent growth in both adoption rates and revenue over time, as this signals a scalable and sustainable business.

For example, we evaluate how quickly the company is expanding. When a company achieves product-market fit, we often see a shift where demand transitions from being driven by the company to being pulled by customers. This shift typically leads to rapid growth in key metrics like revenue, user engagement, retention, and other performance indicators.


Web3-Specific Criteria

Here we focus on several key factors to assess whether the decentralized approach provides clear advantages over traditional centralized solutions. First, we consider the tangible benefits of decentralization — such as enhanced transparency, immutability, and censorship resistance — and whether these features offer meaningful value to users beyond what conventional systems can provide. We also look at the startup’s ability to foster strong network effects, analyzing how the platform incentivizes early adopters and drives the growth of a decentralized ecosystem (this is often done through token incentives that hopefully will lead to a network effect).

Timing is a critical consideration when evaluating Web3 startups. We assess whether the company is entering the market at a favorable moment — ensuring it’s not too early when the infrastructure or demand may still be underdeveloped, nor too late when the space is already saturated. Striking this balance is essential for identifying opportunities with strong potential for growth and adoption. For example, while our investment team had access to major Centralized Finance (CeFi)/Decentralized Finance (DeFi) opportunities like Binance US and Celsius, we hesitated to move forward due to regulatory uncertainty at the time. Similarly, since the NFT market has cooled down and adoption has slowed, it may be too late to invest in an NFT deal or yet another NFT marketplace. On the other hand, now presents an excellent opportunity to explore innovations at the intersection of AI and Web3, as we’ve witnessed significant AI advancements and adoption this year.

3. Product and Technology

Traditional Criteria

From a traditional perspective, we evaluate startups by looking for product differentiation and technological advantage, focusing on their ability to sustain long-term competitive advantages. This includes analyzing proprietary technology, unique business models, strong brand identity, network effects, and high switching costs for customers. For example, a startup offering a unique solution in decentralized finance (DeFi) with proprietary algorithms for optimizing liquidity not only demonstrates innovation but also establishes a competitive moat. A strong moat implies defensibility against competitors and the ability to maintain pricing power or market share as the business scales.

We also assess the startup’s ability to innovate and adapt, ensuring that its moat remains relevant in an evolving industry landscape. We ask whether the product or service is technically complex, requiring specialized talent and years of research and development that would make it difficult for competitors to catch up. Additionally, we consider whether the company holds registered intellectual property or enjoys regulatory protections that offer a competitive edge, enhancing its ability to maintain leadership in the market.


Web3-Specific Criteria

Three key issues in the Web3 space are security, token necessity, and blockchain infrastructure.

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    Security

    With frequent reports of protocol hacks and user scams, security is a top concern. When evaluating a startup, particularly in decentralized lending, it's essential that its smart contracts undergo rigorous third-party audits to address common vulnerabilities. This is crucial for building trust among both investors and users.
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    Token Necessity

    It's important to critically assess whether a startup truly benefits from having its own token or if it’s being used as a value-add rather than a necessity. Then we analyze the tokenomics to ensure the model incentivizes user participation and growth, with well-considered supply distribution and utility within the ecosystem. Tokens can be a powerful chess piece to solve a “chicken-and-egg” problem. For instance, leveraging a token to bootstrap a network, especially in the context of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) provides a significant advantage by jumpstarting the supply side of a two-sided marketplace. Here's how it works: In traditional two-sided markets, attracting supply (e.g., service providers, infrastructure) is challenging without demand (customers), and vice versa. By using a token as an incentive, networks can effectively overcome this challenge by encouraging early participants to contribute to building out the network's supply side before substantial demand exists. In the case of DePIN projects like Helium/Nova Labs, which aims to build a decentralized wireless network, tokens incentivize individuals and businesses to deploy hardware (e.g., hotspots, nodes) and contribute resources (e.g., bandwidth, storage). Tokens serve as a financial incentive, attracting participants to provide the necessary infrastructure for the network to function, even before the network achieves large-scale adoption or generates significant demand.
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    Blockchain Infrastructure

    Blockchain infrastructure, such as choosing a scalable and interoperable blockchain like Ethereum or Solana, supports growth while keeping transaction costs manageable and ensures long-term scalability and ecosystem compatibility.

4. Traction and Metrics

Traditional Criteria

We often ask ourselves, is the product so good that customers are willing to pay for it? Early user adoption and engagement are the tell-tell signs of a startup’s potential. Data such as user acquisition rates, retention, and users engagement with the product, and strategic partnerships are evaluated during due diligence. For example, a mobile app with rapid daily active user growth and high retention rates indicates a strong product-market fit (PMF).


Web3-Specific Criteria

Here we assess metrics such as the number of active wallets interacting with the protocol, total and daily transaction volume, and liquidity within the ecosystem. For example, a new Layer 1 blockchain that attracts a significant number of developers building within its ecosystem strongly indicates that the ecosystem is thriving. A useful analogy is to think of a Layer 1 as a new phone operating system — you want to see what apps are available, who is developing them, and use.

In his book Read Write Own, Chris Dixon highlights “ownership” as a defining feature of the internet’s next phase. The term “own” signifies users’ ability to become stakeholders and gain genuine ownership of digital assets and networks, made possible through blockchain technology. And this brings up another salient feature of many Web3 products — the involvement of token holders and their staking participation, which reflect the project’s community involvement and governance activity.

Staking in blockchain refers to the process of actively participating in the validation and maintenance of a blockchain network by locking up a certain amount of cryptocurrency in the network. Participants, known as “validators” or “stakers,” help secure the network and verify transactions. In return, they earn rewards, typically in the form of additional cryptocurrency, as an incentive for their contributions.

As VCs, we like projects with widespread staking participation and active governance that demonstrates strong alignment between token holders and the protocol, as well as long-term commitment from its community. In early October 2024, our portfolio company Babylon Network was able to attract close to $1.5B of BTC staking on its chain, in addition to the $62.4M inflow in its first staking round in August 2024, signaling a strong PMF.

5. Business Model

Traditional Criteria

We want to understand how the startup plans to monetize its product or service. Is it a recurring revenue model, like subscriptions, or based on transaction fees? Startups with a clear, scalable revenue model provide a more predictable path to growth. For example, a SaaS platform offering subscription-based services has a stable and recurring revenue stream, which is more attractive to investors due to its predictability.

Furthermore, we want to know the specifics about unit economics — such as customer acquisition cost (CAC) and customer lifetime value (LTV). A business with a high LTV to CAC ratio is more likely to scale profitably. For instance, an e-commerce platform with low CAC but high LTV indicates that each customer brings significant long-term value compared to the cost of acquiring them.


Web3-Specific Criteria

When layering on the Web3 lens, we example the token utility. Is the token actually needed, and how is the value accrued (to the company or to the protocol?) For instance, in a decentralized social media platform, the token could be used for content creators to receive rewards, incentivizing usage and fostering a self-sustaining ecosystem. If the token is crucial to the platform’s operations and generates tangible value for users, it enhances the project’s long-term prospects.

One of the distinguishing aspects of Web3 startups is decentralized governance, often implemented through DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations). We look at how these governance mechanisms impact decision-making and the project’s sustainability. A Web3 project that successfully implements decentralized governance allows token holders to participate in key decisions, ensuring community alignment and potentially greater resilience in the long term. For example, a DeFi protocol governed by a DAO gives users a say in the protocol’s evolution, aligning the community’s incentives with the project’s growth.

Having served as a DAO governor for a protocol myself (I believe hands-on experience is the best way to learn), I quickly realized the immense coordination, communication, and alignment required to make decentralized governance effective — especially when governors are unpaid. Despite our best efforts, our group struggled to maintain the necessary cohesion and ultimately failed to make the governance work as intended. It was a valuable lesson in understanding the challenges that come with decentralized decision-making, particularly the need for clear incentives and strong collaboration.

6. Competitive Landscape

Traditional Criteria

In any market, understanding the competitive landscape is key. We want to know if this is another “me too” product that is facing fierce competition in a crowded space. Or is it solving the same pain points but with a much differentiated approach or offering? It may be a better product, stronger team, or a more efficient solution. For example, if a fintech startup is offering a payment solution, we would assess how it stacks up against established players like PayPal or Stripe and what gives it a competitive edge, such as lower fees or better user experience.

We would also ask, what’s the barrier to entry? This also echoes the consideration about moat as discussed under the product category.


Web3-Specific Criteria

In Web3, being a first mover or having strong stakeholder support can provide a significant competitive edge. For example, in every Layer 1 blockchain ecosystem (the foundational infrastructure of an on-chain network like Bitcoin), there’s a need for a decentralized exchange (DEX) to enable token trading and facilitate on/off ramping into the ecosystem. The first DEX to offer this liquidity or access, and do so effectively, is well-positioned to build a strong network effect, becoming the default gateway for users and establishing a dominant market position.

On the flipside, it’s crucial to recognize that being a first mover doesn’t guarantee long-term success. While early entrants may enjoy initial advantages, they can be quickly outpaced by new players who disrupt the market with superior technology, innovative features, or a better understanding of evolving user needs.

Take Zoom, for example. It entered a market dominated by established players like Skype and Cisco Webex, which had the first-mover advantage and significant market share. However, Zoom’s ability to challenge these incumbents through a seamless user experience, more reliable performance, and a keen focus on video communication rather than broader functionalities allowed it to redefine the space and emerge as a leader.

In the multichain world of Web3, interoperability is crucial. A great example of interoperability in Web3 is Chainlink, a decentralized oracle network that provides real-world data to blockchain smart contracts. Chainlink’s technology is interoperable across multiple Layer 1 blockchains, such as Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain, Avalanche, and Solana.

For instance, developers building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on any of these Layer 1s can use Chainlink oracles to access accurate price feeds or external data, regardless of the underlying blockchain. This cross-chain compatibility makes Chainlink a key piece of infrastructure, enabling seamless interactions between different blockchain ecosystems and increasing its utility in the broader Web3 space. Its interoperability helps projects on various platforms benefit from the same trusted data source, strengthening the decentralized ecosystem as a whole.

This brings us to the next point of Collaboration: Successful Web3 projects often rely on strategic partnerships and integrations with other blockchain protocols. We look at how well a project collaborates within the decentralized ecosystem, enhancing its network strength through partnerships. For instance, a project that integrates seamlessly with multiple DeFi platforms or other blockchain networks creates synergies that strengthen its position in the market, making it harder for competitors to displace. On the flipside it’s important to be cautious about investing in projects that prioritize personal connections or friendships over strong business fundamentals.

For example in DeFi, strategic investors play a crucial role in a project’s success, particularly market makers, exchange venture arms, or prominent angels who are founders of successful DeFi projects. These investors not only provide capital but also bring significant value through liquidity and user adoption from their respective ecosystems. For instance, a market maker can ensure deep liquidity on a decentralized exchange, while an exchange’s venture arm might facilitate faster listings. Founders from strong DeFi projects can leverage their networks and experience, driving integration with other platforms and fostering rapid community growth, all of which help the project gain traction in the broader DeFi ecosystem.


Web3-Specific Criteria

There are a lot more legal and regulatory considerations that we’d factor in when evaluating a Web3 startup. Two risk factors come to mind:

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    Regulatory Compliance for Tokens

    We evaluate how the startup navigates the complex regulatory landscape surrounding token classification — whether tokens are categorized as securities, utilities, or other types — and their compliance with local and global regulations. For example, a startup issuing tokens must comply with securities laws in different jurisdictions if the token is deemed a security, which could affect how it is traded or distributed. At Alumni Ventures, we do not make direct investments in tokens that are trading on the Decentralized or Centralized exchanges. We make equity investment into Web3 startups and sometimes as part of the deal structure, a Token Warrant is included. Or we invest through a SAFT (Simple Agreement for Future Tokens), which is based on the "Simple Agreement for Future Equity" (SAFE) commonly used in traditional venture capital but is tailored for token offerings. Under a SAFT, we agree to purchase tokens from a company before they are available to the public. The tokens themselves are not immediately issued. Instead, we receive a promise of tokens to be delivered in the future when the network or platform is fully functional and the tokens are created. We hold these investments in an offshore vehicle so that we have maximum flexibility and are compliant with U.S. regulations.
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    Decentralization Legal Risk

    The decentralized nature of Web3 projects can introduce unique legal risks. We consider how decentralization affects a project’s regulatory exposure. For instance, a DAO might have unclear legal accountability, making it harder to identify who is responsible in case of a regulatory violation. Understanding how decentralization impacts compliance helps mitigate potential legal issues down the road.

YOUR OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN MORE

From a venture capital perspective, this is a compelling time to invest in blockchain and fintech, which are both riding multiple tailwinds. From payments and lending to insurance and investment management, blockchain and fintech are driving innovation and efficiency gains — augmenting or even disrupting industries.

Fintech sector revenues are projected to grow ~3x faster than the traditional banking sector through 2028. Blockchain continues to reshape traditional sectors, with 37% of the global blockchain tech market in banking and financial services.

If that sounds intriguing, you might be interested in our Blockchain & Fintech Fund. I’m pleased to share that we’ve achieved positive MOIC across all our four previous blockchain funds.*

* As of June 30, 2024. MOIC (Multiples on Invested Capital) is equivalent to the multiple of return gross of fees, except for incentive allocations actually paid from Amounts Returned to Investors, and equals ( Current Valuation + Amount Returned) / Total Invested Capital. Reported performance would be lower if the impact of fees are reflected.  Reported performance incorporates valuation of Digital Assets, which is prone to volatility.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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This communication is from Alumni Ventures, a for-profit venture capital company that is not affiliated with or endorsed by any school. It is not personalized advice, and AV only provides advice to its client funds. This communication is neither an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to purchase, any security. Such offers are made only pursuant to the formal offering documents for the fund(s) concerned, and describe significant risks and other material information that should be carefully considered before investing. For additional information, please see here. Venture capital investing involves substantial risk, including risk of loss of all capital invested. This communication includes forward-looking statements, generally consisting of any statement pertaining to any issue other than historical fact, including without limitation predictions, financial projections, the anticipated results of the execution of any plan or strategy, the expectation or belief of the speaker, or other events or circumstances to exist in the future. Forward-looking statements are not representations of actual fact, depend on certain assumptions that may not be realized, and are not guaranteed to occur. Any forward-looking statements included in this communication speak only as of the date of the communication. AV and its affiliates disclaim any obligation to update, amend, or alter such forward-looking statements, whether due to subsequent events, new information, or otherwise.

Information regarding Alumni Ventures’ evaluative process for venture investments is intended as a summary only and is not intended to be comprehensive. Alumni Ventures reserves the right to vary any or all of the processes described in appropriate circumstances.