America’s Nuclear Renaissance: A $1 Trillion Opportunity in the Tech War with China
Powering the Future: How Advanced Nuclear Technology Is Key to AI Leadership and National Security
The growing demand for AI technologies is pushing the need for more sustainable and reliable energy sources, with nuclear power emerging as a crucial solution for both energy and national security. With a projected $1.1 trillion market by 2035 and significant advancements in nuclear technology, such as small modular reactors and AI-enhanced systems, the U.S. is poised to lead a nuclear renaissance, benefiting from robust R&D infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and strong government support.
“Whoever leads in nuclear technology will lead the 21st century.”
– Admiral John Richardson, former Chief of Naval Operations
I’ve been following the nuclear industry for years, but I’ve never seen such a surge of momentum around nuclear technology as I have today. Whether you care about America’s global standing, climate change, breakthroughs in AI, or new wealth-creation opportunities, there’s no denying that nuclear has become a pivotal part of our future. And much of the urgency? Well, it boils down to competition with China.
The numbers paint a clear picture: China plans to spend $440 billion on 150 new nuclear reactors by 2035 — more than the rest of the world combined. These reactors are critical not only for energy but also for technological edge and national security. As Americans, we have a chance (some might say a responsibility) to catch up and eventually outpace them. As investors, it’s a chance to participate in what Goldman Sachs Research calls a $1.1 trillion total market by 2035.
In my eyes, this is more than a race. It’s a renaissance — America’s Nuclear Renaissance. So let’s talk about what’s happening, why it matters, and how we can all get involved.
Why Nuclear? Why Now?
1. The AI Computing Crisis
When we think about advanced technologies, especially AI, we don’t always consider the staggering amount of power these systems require. But data centers are on track to consume 20% of global electricity by 2025, and our current grid capacity already falls 40% short of the projected AI power needs. If America wants to stay on the cutting edge of AI research and applications, we need a clean, scalable, and consistently available energy source.
Solar and wind are essential parts of the energy mix, but in many cases, they’re not enough. One advanced nuclear power plant can supply the same continuous baseload power as dozens of utility-scale solar farms — without fluctuation when the sun isn’t shining. In the words of Andy Jassy, Amazon’s CEO, “Nuclear power isn’t optional for AI leadership — it’s essential.” When you see major corporations investing heavily in next-generation nuclear startups, you know something big is happening.
2. National Security Imperative
According to Gen. Mark Milley (Ret.), the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “Advanced nuclear technology represents America’s new Manhattan Project. We cannot cede this ground to our adversaries.” That’s a bold statement, and it underscores how critical nuclear tech is for national security.
We’re currently looking at three major players in the global nuclear scene: China, Russia, and the United States. Right now, China has 150 reactors in development, Russia has 75, and the United States has 28. While U.S. investment is planned to be around $150 billion, that pales in comparison to China’s $440 billion. If nuclear determines global influence in the coming decades, it’s obvious America needs to step up.
3. A Trillion-Dollar Market
On top of the strategic importance, there’s a $1.1 trillion total addressable market (TAM) by 2035, according to Goldman Sachs. That’s not small change. We’re talking about a potential 324% growth in nuclear tech valuations from 2024 to 2030. This is the kind of once-in-a-generation opportunity that investors dream about — especially in an industry that blends large-scale infrastructure with cutting-edge innovation.
It’s also important to note how successful many nuclear startups have been in recent years. TerraPower, Bill Gates’ advanced nuclear venture, reached a $4.1 billion valuation, yielding a 19.8x return for early investors. NuScale’s $1.9 billion IPO gave a return of 11.3x, and Commonwealth Fusion’s $2.6 billion valuation was 15.2x. These aren’t isolated cases; they’re indicative of a broader wave in advanced nuclear tech.
Key Investment Metrics
Before diving further, let’s take stock of some of the numbers I keep hearing in boardrooms and pitch decks:
- Nuclear tech startup valuations: 485% average growth (2020–23)
- Early-stage nuclear investments: 47% IRR since 2019
- Government contracts: $44.2 billion committed through 2030
- Total addressable market: $1.1 trillion by 2035
(Sources: Pitchbook, Department of Energy, Goldman Sachs Research.)
Why does this matter? Because the market is enormous, the valuations are climbing fast, and the returns have been stellar. This sets the stage for both strategic and economic opportunity.
Where Alumni Ventures Fits In
Nuclear is not new to Alumni Ventures. We have not only become one of the most active investors in the technology, but have made a dedicated effort to advance nuclear energy in the U.S. through community and collaboration. For instance, we hosted the largest nuclear meetup in NYC history; co-organized the first venture summit at Idaho National Laboratories; and co-hosted a Nuclear Demand Summit with Founders Fund, 8VC, and Anduril to explore nuclear energy for AI, defense, and space applications.
Portfolio Spotlight: X-energy
X-energy develops high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) and TRISO fuel, delivering one of the safest and most versatile solutions for energy reliability and decarbonization. Their reactors are well suited for hard-to-electrify industries and clean hydrogen production, positioning X-energy as a leader in the net-zero transition. The company secured a $1.2 billion award from the U.S. Department of Energy under the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program and is advancing its Xe-100 reactor toward commercial deployment in the Pacific Northwest.
- Co-Investors: Amazon, Dow, Guggenheim Partners, Energy Impact Partners
Our Secret Weapons: Why U.S. Nuclear Tech Has an Edge
America still has some distinct advantages — resources, innovative entrepreneurs, and a spirit of bold experimentation. The Department of Energy and other agencies have allocated billions to advanced reactor demonstration programs, research partnerships, and public-private collaborations.
Key Advantages
- Home
World-Class R&D Infrastructure
The U.S. is home to 17 national laboratories, including Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Idaho National Labs, which drive breakthroughs in reactor design, fuel technology, and waste management. These facilities provide the testing grounds and expertise necessary to turn ideas into scalable solutions. - Home
Robust Supply Chains
With advanced materials, precision manufacturing, and domestic capabilities, the U.S. is well-equipped to support nuclear innovation at scale. Efforts to onshore HALEU fuel production and streamline supply chains enhance energy security and reduce dependency on foreign sources. - Home
Unparalleled Talent Pool
American universities and research institutions produce the world’s leading engineers, scientists, and nuclear specialists. Programs that foster workforce development and attract global talent ensure the U.S. remains at the forefront of nuclear technology.
The U.S. is well-positioned to lead the next wave of nuclear energy innovation. With its world-class infrastructure, industrial capabilities, and unmatched talent, America is ready to build a future powered by clean, reliable, and scalable nuclear energy. The time to lead is now.
The Next Wave of Advanced Nuclear Technologies
We often think of nuclear as monolithic — big, traditional reactors. But advanced nuclear is far more diverse. Here are three key areas that hold massive investment potential.
1. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Traditional reactors can take seven or more years to build and cost billions of dollars. Small Modular Reactors, on the other hand, can be designed off-site, assembled like Legos, and deployed within 18 months. They’re up to 85% cheaper to build and can be scaled much more flexibly. Governments worldwide, including the U.S., are setting aside billions in grants and contracts specifically for SMR development.
2. Advanced Fuel Technology
One of the biggest criticisms of nuclear has always been waste. But new processes are emerging that reduce waste by as much as 96%, while simultaneously boosting energy efficiency by 300%. Not only is this better for the environment, but it also improves the overall economics of nuclear power. Some experts project that the advanced fuel market alone could be worth $4.2 billion by 2027.
3. AI-Enhanced Nuclear Systems
With AI seeping into every corner of technology, it’s natural that nuclear would benefit as well. AI can optimize reactor operations, cut operational costs by 45%, and push safety improvements to near-perfect levels. AI and nuclear are a powerful combination — one that’s already attracting big-name investors.
Three-Tiered Investment Strategy in Nuclear Technology
A comprehensive investment strategy in nuclear technology should encompass three key categories: Direct Technology Plays, Infrastructure Opportunities, and Ecosystem Investments. Each represents a unique slice of the value chain and plays a pivotal role in accelerating nuclear energy’s potential as a cornerstone of clean energy solutions. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Direct Technology Plays
This category represents the cutting-edge innovations driving the future of nuclear energy. It targets the “core” of the industry: reactor designs, advanced fuels, and control systems.
- Early-stage reactor designers: Companies like Oklo or TerraPower are advancing next-generation reactors that are smaller, more efficient, and safer. Investment could fund regulatory milestones, pilot projects, or manufacturing scale-up.
- Advanced fuel developers: High-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuels, critical for many new reactors, are seeing increased demand. Companies like Centrus Energy are positioned to address supply bottlenecks.
- Safety and control systems: AI-enhanced monitoring platforms like those developed by Kairos Power or X-energy improve operational reliability and reduce downtime.
Scenario: Investing in a company commercializing modular nuclear reactors that could power remote industrial sites or data centers, with a scalable revenue model tied to recurring fuel sales.
Market Size & Growth: The global nuclear energy market is projected to grow from $91 billion in 2022 to $150 billion by 2030, driven by demand for clean, baseload power. Modular reactors alone are expected to reach a $21 billion market by 2030.
2. Infrastructure Opportunities
Nuclear energy doesn’t operate in isolation — it requires a robust infrastructure for deployment, integration, and optimization. This category focuses on the systems that connect nuclear power to the larger energy ecosystem.
- Grid modernization: Companies like Fluence and GridBridge are creating solutions for grid resiliency and integrating nuclear with intermittent renewables like wind and solar.
- Supply chain optimization: Platforms such as Aravo or Interos improve transparency in complex nuclear supply chains, essential for reducing costs and avoiding bottlenecks.
- Cybersecurity solutions: With increasing cyber threats, startups like Dragos or Nozomi Networks specialize in securing industrial control systems critical to nuclear facilities.
Scenario: Investing in a company enabling real-time grid balancing for regions with high nuclear and renewable energy penetration, ensuring seamless integration into a clean energy mix.
Market Size & Growth: The global smart grid market is projected to reach $170 billion by 2030, with supply chain digitization in energy growing at a 12% CAGR. Cybersecurity spending for critical infrastructure is expected to surpass $10 billion annually by 2025.
3. Ecosystem Investments
The “soft infrastructure” supporting nuclear energy is often overlooked but equally essential. This includes tools for workforce development, regulatory compliance, and waste management.
- Training and simulation: Companies like GSE Systems provide immersive virtual reality platforms for training operators, reducing the cost and risk of on-site training.
- Regulatory compliance tech: Startups like Raptor Maps, originally from the solar sector, could be adapted to help nuclear operators streamline inspection and regulatory documentation.
- Waste management innovation: Companies developing next-generation waste reprocessing technologies, such as Deep Isolation, are innovating ways to safely store and repurpose nuclear waste.
Scenario: Backing a startup offering AI-driven compliance tools that automate nuclear plant inspections and reduce regulatory approval timelines by 20%, enabling faster deployment of nuclear technologies.
Market Size & Growth: The nuclear waste management market alone is projected to grow from $4.5 billion in 2022 to $7.5 billion by 2030, while demand for training tools and simulation software grows at over 9% CAGR due to workforce needs.
Portfolio Spotlight: Aalo Atomics
Aalo Atomics is revolutionizing nuclear energy with small modular reactors designed to power data centers and industrial facilities. Unlike traditional reactors, Aalo’s factory-built designs offer rapid deployment and decentralized, resilient energy solutions, addressing the critical need for steady, emissions-free power as data center demand grows. The company recently signed an MOU with Idaho Falls Power to deploy seven Aalo-1 reactors, totaling 75 MW, marking a major milestone in real-world implementation.
- Co-Investors: 50 Years, Valor Equity Partners, Harpoon Ventures
See video policy below.
Regulatory Tailwinds
For decades, stringent regulation posed the greatest challenge to nuclear innovation in the U.S., but the tide is turning. A series of federal initiatives and bipartisan support are paving the way for advanced nuclear technologies, providing both financial incentives and reduced regulatory hurdles.
Key Federal Initiatives
1. Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act (NEIMA)
- Details: NEIMA streamlines regulatory processes for advanced reactors, reducing licensing costs and timelines. It also allocates $25 billion to support reactor research and development, focusing on technologies like small modular reactors and microreactors.
- Impact: By cutting red tape, this act lowers barriers to market entry for startups, incentivizes private-sector participation, and accelerates commercialization.
2. Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP)
- Details: With $8 billion allocated, the ARDP funds demonstration projects for next-generation reactors. Awardees include TerraPower and X-energy, each receiving $1.5 billion to build first-of-a-kind reactors by the late 2020s.
- Impact: These projects provide proof-of-concept for advanced technologies, reducing investor skepticism and fostering industry confidence.
3. Production Tax Credit (PTC)
- Details: The PTC guarantees $35/MWh for nuclear operators for 10 years, ensuring stable revenues for plants and improving the financial viability of nuclear projects.
- Impact: By making nuclear competitive with renewables and natural gas, the PTC attracts new investors and encourages utilities to extend plant lifespans or adopt advanced designs.
4. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
- Details: The IRA introduces technology-neutral clean energy credits, allowing advanced nuclear to compete on equal footing with wind, solar, and other clean energy sources.
- Impact: This creates a level playing field, incentivizing utilities to adopt nuclear as a reliable clean energy solution alongside intermittent renewables.
Anticipated Impact of the Trump Administration
Under the Trump Administration, we anticipate further regulatory and financial support for nuclear energy. The previous administration was vocal in its support for nuclear, launching initiatives like the Nuclear Fuel Working Group, which emphasized energy security and domestic uranium production. A renewed focus on deregulation and “all-of-the-above” energy strategies will likely benefit the nuclear industry by:
- Expanding R&D funding for new reactor designs.
- Streamlining licensing through executive orders or Department of Energy (DOE) directives.
- Encouraging public-private partnerships to spur domestic energy independence.
These regulatory tailwinds are translating into real capital flows and reduced risk for investors. Federal and state governments are sending a clear message: advanced nuclear is critical to achieving energy security and net-zero goals. With bipartisan support and a potentially pro-nuclear administration, the stage is set for nuclear to emerge as a cornerstone of the U.S. energy transition.
Portfolio Spotlight: Radiant Nuclear
Radiant Nuclear is pioneering microreactors for remote, off-grid applications, including military bases and disaster recovery zones. Their portable, modular designs provide flexible and fast deployment, offering a reliable, emissions-free alternative to carbon-intensive diesel generators, addressing critical energy independence and resilience needs. The company has secured initial funding from the Department of Defense for prototype testing and is in talks with global humanitarian organizations for pilot projects.
- Co-Investors: Founders Fund, A16Z, DCVC, USV
The Time to Invest Is Now
The window of opportunity won’t remain open forever. China is marching toward its 2035 goal at breakneck speed, and the nuclear supply chain — everything from specialized steel to engineering talent — doesn’t materialize overnight. Early movers in nuclear have the chance to shape the industry, attract prime government contracts, and secure partnerships with leading tech firms.
For anyone new to the sector, you don’t have to navigate this alone. Specialized venture capital, co-investment models, and collaborative networks can provide both financial and technical expertise. Diversification, through a multi-tier approach, can help minimize risks.
Looking Ahead: America’s Nuclear Century
History shows that when America commits to technological leadership — whether in the Space Race or the computer revolution — we win. The nuclear renaissance represents our generation’s moonshot moment. Yes, it’s about energy independence, but it’s also about AI supremacy, national security, and American leadership in the technologies that will define the 21st century.
China isn’t waiting. They see what we see: whoever leads in nuclear will likely lead in AI, defense, and high-tech manufacturing. But they’re missing what makes America uniquely suited to win this race — our unmatched combination of private sector innovation, research infrastructure, and entrepreneurial spirit.
The stakes are high, but so are the potential returns. This is our moment to ensure America leads the next century of innovation. This is how we win.
Learn More About the U.S. Strategic Tech Fund
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